UAlberta Math Biology Seminar: Murshed Ahmeb Ovi

Choleraremains a significant public health threat in many parts of the world, withdiffering levels of compliance to intervention strategies and undocumentedcases contributing to reservoir contamination with Vibrio cholerae at varyingrates alongside reported cases. To address this, we incorporate an in apparentcholera-infected compartment into the iSIR model and equip it with parametersdepicting vaccination and compliance levels for water and food sanitation,handwashing, and safe fecal disposal. Our model shows that the bacteriashedding from the in apparent infection can significantly affect the spread ofcholera. Also, we identify that lowering the bacteria ingestion rate among thesusceptible and controlling the bacteria shedding from reported infected aretwo key components for obtaining a disease-free state in the long run. Themodel fitting to cholera outbreaks in Haiti, Kenya, Malawi, and Zimbabweimplies that at least 88.5%of cases are inapparent,with the first reporting appearing up to 11 weeks after the start of the outbreak.Additionally, we find that the combination of water and food sanitation andhandwashing is the most effective intervention strategy for reducing thecholera outbreak peak if compliance with these measures remains at moderate orhigh levels. However, with low compliance, safe fecal disposal of the reported infectedindividuals combined with vaccination coverage of the susceptible population issuggested to obtain the lowest outbreak peak.